Executive Summary

ONB delivered strong Q3 2025 with GAAP diluted EPS $0.46 and adjusted EPS $0.59, driven by a full quarter of Bremer, margin expansion (FTE NIM +11 bps to 3.64%), and record capital markets fees; adjusted efficiency improved to 48.1% .
Against S&P Global consensus, ONB beat on EPS (0.59 vs 0.562) but missed on revenue ($671.3M vs $696.2M) as defined by S&P; management’s “total revenue (FTE)” was $713.0M and GAAP NII+noninterest income was $705.1M, highlighting definitional differences [GetEstimates]* .
Management trimmed Q4 NII guide by ~$5M vs prior, now ~~“$585M” from “~~$590M,” citing a lower five-year Treasury and a slightly lower starting run-rate, but reiterated “stable to improving” Q4 NII/NIM; full-year ex-Bremer loan growth guide maintained at 4–5% .
Credit stayed resilient: NCOs 25 bps (17 bps ex-PCD), 30+ day delinquencies fell to 0.18%, and criticized/classified loans down ~6%; CET1 rose 28 bps to 11.02% as ONB repurchased 1.1M shares; dividend maintained at $0.14 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Margin expansion and revenue scale-up: FTE NIM rose 11 bps to 3.64%; NII (FTE) increased to $582.6M on Bremer’s full quarter and higher asset yields .
- Fee momentum and efficiency: Adjusted noninterest income rose 16.9% ex-pension gain/losses; adjusted efficiency improved to 48.1%; capital markets posted record revenue .
- Credit and capital: 30+ day DQs improved to 0.18%; criticized/classified loans down 6%; CET1 11.02% (+28 bps); TCE/TA up to 7.53%; repurchased 1.1M shares .
- Management tone: “Best acquisition we can make in the next 12 months is ourselves”; focused on organic growth and talent, with Bremer conversion called ONB’s “best” to date .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue vs S&P consensus: S&P revenue “actual” $671.3M trailed the $696.2M consensus despite strong “total revenue (FTE)” of $713.0M, reflecting definitional misalignment; still, the S&P miss can weigh on near-term sentiment [GetEstimates]* .
- Modest guide trim: Q4 NII guide reduced by ~$5M vs prior given rate backdrop, though management emphasized stability; could cap multiple expansion until clarity improves .
- Merger-related costs: $69.3M pre-tax charges depressed GAAP results (GAAP EPS $0.46 vs adjusted $0.59); another ~$50M merger-related expense expected in Q4 .

Financial Results

Income statement and profitability (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Interest Income ($M)	$391.7	$387.6	$514.8	$574.6
Noninterest Income ($M)	$94.1	$93.8	$132.5	$130.5
Total Revenue (FTE) ($M)	$492.0	$486.8	$654.4	$713.0
Provision for Credit Losses ($M)	$28.5	$31.4	$106.8	$26.7
Noninterest Expense ($M)	$272.3	$268.5	$384.8	$445.7
Net Income to Common ($M)	$139.8	$140.6	$121.4	$178.5
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.44	$0.44	$0.34	$0.46
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$0.46	$0.45	$0.53	$0.59
NIM (FTE) %	3.32%	3.27%	3.53%	3.64%
Efficiency Ratio %	53.8%	53.7%	55.8%	58.8%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio %	51.2%	51.8%	50.2%	48.1%
PPNR ($M)	$219.7	$218.3	$269.6	$267.3
Adjusted PPNR ($M)	$229.3	$224.3	$289.9	$336.6

Balance sheet and returns (EOP unless noted)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Loans ($B)	$36.40	$36.41	$47.90	$47.97
Deposits ($B)	$40.85	$40.82	$54.36	$55.01
Total Assets ($B)	$53.60	$53.55	$70.98	$71.21
CET1 (Tier 1 common) %	11.00%	11.62%	10.74%	11.02%
TCE/TA %	7.44%	7.41%	7.26%	7.53%
ROATCE % (adj)	16.8%	15.5%	18.1%	20.1%

Credit metrics

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
NCOs / Avg Loans (bps)	19	24	24	25
NPLs / Loans %	1.22%	1.29%	1.24%	1.23%
30+ Day DQs / Loans %	0.26%	0.22%	0.30%	0.18%
ACL / Loans %	1.12%	1.14%	1.24%	1.26%
Provision ($M)	$28.5	$31.4	$106.8	$26.7

KPIs and other items

Deposit cost: 1.97% in Q3, +4 bps Q/Q; interest-bearing deposit cost 2.57%, +5 bps Q/Q .
Core deposits grew 5.8% annualized; loan-to-deposit ratio ~87% .
Capital actions: Repurchased 1.1M shares; dividend declared $0.14 on Nov 12, payable Dec 15 .

Segment breakdown: ONB reports as a consolidated commercial bank; no discrete operating segments disclosed in these materials .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q2’25)	Current Guidance (Q3’25)	Change
Net Interest Income / NIM	Q4 2025	NII/NIM to “continue to grow” in 2H25	Q4 “stable to improving”; NII guide trimmed by ~~$5M (~~$590M → ~$585M)	Lowered near-term trajectory
Fee Income	FY/Q4 2025	Positive momentum; adj noninterest income $112M in Q2	Guidance raised to reflect strong Q3; expect normalization in Q4 (cap markets unusually strong)	Raised, then normalize
Noninterest Expense	Q4 2025 & 1Q 2026	Run-rate controlled	Q3 adjusted $376.5M; remaining merger charges ~$50M in Q4; full run-rate Bremer cost saves (> $115M annualized) fully realized in Q1 2026	Cost saves timing affirmed
Loan Growth (ex-Bremer)	FY 2025	4–5% for FY ex-Bremer	Reiterated 4–5% for FY ex-Bremer; Q4 guide ~3–5% inclusive	Maintained
Deposits	2025	Drive above-peer growth at reasonable cost	Expect to meet/exceed industry growth; spot deposit rate 1.86% post Sept cut	Maintained
Capital return	Near-term	Higher CET1 than modeled; flexibility	CET1 11.02%; opportunistic buybacks (1.1M in Q3) with bias to more post-Q4; potential to let CET1 drift lower over time	More constructive

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Bremer integration	Deal closed May 1; repositioned securities; boosted CET1; 2 months contribution in Q2	“Best systems conversion to date”; cost saves fully realized in Q1’26; ~$50M merger charges in Q4; $200M Bremer loan runoff in Q3	Integration progressing; savings ahead
NII/NIM outlook	Q1: deposit costs down 17 bps; NIM -3 bps; Q2: NIM +26 bps; H2’25 NII/NIM to grow	Q4 NII/NIM “stable to improving”; guide trimmed ~$5M on lower 5Y and lower launch point	Slight near-term moderation
Deposits & costs	Above-peer growth strategy; Q2 spot rate 1.93%	Core deposits +5.8% ann.; total deposit cost +4 bps; spot 1.86% post Fed cut; confident on deposit beta management	Positive growth; disciplined pricing
Credit risk	Benign; criticized/classified down; CECL Day 1 in Q2	DQs 0.18%; criticized/classified -6%; NCOs 25 bps (17 bps ex-PCD); minimal NDFI exposure (<50 bps of loans)	Stable to improving
Capital & buybacks	CET1 10.74% in Q2 vs modeled; flexibility	CET1 11.02% (+28 bps); 1.1M shares repurchased; openness to more as visibility improves	Building capacity; returns resuming
Fee income	Q1/Q2 fee growth in wealth/mortgage/cap markets	Record capital markets fees; total noninterest income $130.5M; expect normalization in Q4	Strong but episodic

Management Commentary

“Old National's outstanding quarterly results reflect our continued focus on the fundamentals and the benefits from our recent partnership with Bremer Bank.” — Jim Ryan, Chairman & CEO .
“We beat earnings expectations, delivered an adjusted 20% return on average tangible common equity, a 1.3% plus return on assets, and a sub-50% efficiency ratio with improved credit metrics.” — CEO opening remarks .
“Let me be clear, the best acquisition we can make in the next 12 months is ourselves… We are focused on organically growing our balance sheet and capital and delivering the best return for our shareholders.” — CEO .
“NII is expected to increase with the benefit of fixed asset repricing and continued growth… our balance sheet remains neutrally positioned to short-term interest rates.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

NII guide trimmed by ~$5M for Q4 (to ~“$585M”), attributed to lower 5Y Treasury and a slightly lower starting run-rate; management emphasized stability on a ~$65B earning asset base .
Capital returns: ONB repurchased 1.1M shares late Q3; management sees room to do “substantially more” while balancing CET1 (11%+) and stakeholder views; could allow CET1 to drift down over time .
Bremer portfolio: ~ $200M Bremer loan runoff in Q3, reflecting exit of certain national businesses; no planned large loan sales .
Fee income sustainability: Capital markets strength partly driven by rate volatility and larger swap fees; management expects normalization from unusually strong Q3 .
Cost saves timing: ~>$115M annualized run-rate savings from Bremer to be fully realized in Q1 2026; ~ $50M additional merger charges in Q4 .
Risk exposure: Non-depository financial institutions <50 bps of total loans; all performing .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q3 2025)	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Primary EPS (S&P definition)	$0.562*	$0.59*	+$0.03 (beat)
Revenue ($M, S&P definition)	$696.2*	$671.3*	-$24.9 (miss)
# of Estimates (EPS / Revenue)	12*	—	— / 10*

Note: Company-reported GAAP NII+noninterest income was $705.1M and “total revenue (FTE)” was $713.0M, which differ from S&P’s “Revenue” definition used above .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes: Additional Details and Dividend

Tax rate: Q3 effective tax rate 21.5%; adjusted FTE basis 24.0% (vs 24.6% in Q2); tax credit benefit $7.8M .
Dividend: Quarterly dividend of $0.14/share payable Dec 15, 2025; preferred dividends also declared .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution remains strong: Adjusted EPS $0.59 with sub-50% adjusted efficiency and improved credit metrics supports a peer-leading return profile; ongoing cost saves and Bremer synergies are tailwinds into 2026 .
Near-term setup: Modest Q4 NII trim reflects rates/starting point, but management expects “stable to improving” NII/NIM; watch Q4 print for confirmation and 2026 NII path vs curve shape .
Credit normalized and well-reserved: DQs down to 0.18%, criticized/classified -6%; ACL/loans 1.26%; low NDFI exposure reduces headline risk vs peers .
Capital deployment optionality: CET1 11.02% with rising TCE/TA; repurchases resumed (1.1M shares) and could increase as visibility improves—potential upside to capital return .
Deposit franchise advantage: Core deposits +5.8% annualized; managing betas proactively (spot 1.86% at 9/30), positioning ONB well in a cutting cycle .
Fee income strong but episodic: Record capital markets revenue aided Q3; expect normalization—model fees prudently while recognizing upside from volatility .
Watch list: Q4 merger charges (~$50M), realization of >$115M annualized cost saves by Q1 2026, loan growth cadence (incl. Bremer runoff normalization), and potential acceleration of buybacks .

Citations: All figures and statements sourced from ONB’s Q3 2025 press release and 8-K, the Q3 2025 earnings call transcript, prior-quarter materials, and the dividend press release as cited inline: .

OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary